buy canada goose jacket outlet stores

About Garth Turner
“If there was ever an indication of how much of a buyer’s market buy canada goose jacket outlet stores is out there,” says a prominent agent on his blog, “it has got to be the fact that so many homes I show lately have no one living in them!” No, this is not a realtor in Phoenix or Orlando, but a working dude in one of Canada’s major markets. More on that in a minute.

Another realtor, in the biz for 16 years selling luxury rural spreads on the horsey end of Toronto says, “there was no Spring market this year. Only now are the listings starting to gush in.” But he’s worried. Properties may have been scarce, but so were buyers. Why should that change now?

Some weeks ago I said a correction in Canada’s real estate market had begun. It was evident in falling sales even in the face of fewer listings. And buy canada goose jacket outlet stores doesn’t take much to see consumer confidence has stalled. Gas and food prices are eating up disposable income, mortgage rules are tighter, jobs are still scarce, incomes are stagnant and we all know interest rates are set to rise. Meanwhile real estate values have jumped on declining sales, making houses less affordable. Tons of owners are frightened to become sellers, spooked at the cost of moving.

As I said, few homeowners today would ever pay for their homes what they demand others must. It’s another sign there’s no robust market ahead.

Too damn bad, because this could be the last, great opportunity to bail in markets which still have a pulse, like Toronto, Calgary, Montreal and Vancouver. People with houses, too freaked out to list them, may end up selling into a declining or moribund market – and collectively leave billions on the table in tax-free capital gains. Just ask folks in, say, Kelowna or Edmonton.

What turns homeowners into quivering lumps of insecurity when they contemplating a sale?

Maybe Marshall in Halifax can shed some light:

Although I agree with most of what you write in your blog I feel there is a portion of your audience that you may mislead. Basically you are advising dumping real estate and investing the proceeds to fund rental costs of a home. I own my home, which I purchased 16 years ago, with a small remaining mortgage which will evaporate in the next two years.

Being somewhat risk adverse I feel buy canada goose jacket outlet stores would be an error for me to sell my home and rent with investment proceeds. No investment is 100% safe and following your advice could lead to me having to move in with friends or live in a tent if the investments tanked and did not provide sufficient income to pay living costs. Under the above circumstances I think I’ll hunker down until the grim reaper calls.

I feel blessed after reading your blog.

Of course, Marshall baby, we all do. But you haven’t exactly got my advice right.

Here’s the real risk in owning a home today: having the bulk of your net worth in one immovable, and potentially illiquid asset which looks like it will be declining in value for years to come. It you’re cool seeing equity trickle away, fine. This is exactly what kicked the crap out of the US middle class – the people who never took a subprime mortgage and owned their homes for years before any crisis materialized. Once property values started to fall, their net worth fell with it. In many cases, they were wiped.

Most at risk (as I’ve said) are first-time buyers with scant equity and obese mortgages, and wrinkly Boomers with fat equity and few investments. Both of these groups could be in for the surprise of their lives. They’ll bookend the correction.

But, Marsh buddy, cashing in your equity does not lead directly to living in a tent. Ironically, if you’re risk-averse, then you should actually be terrified of residential real estate. Its value is completely out of your hands, unlike say, plowing money into good corporate bonds with a 100% chance of paying you back. Combine those with assets that pay you handsomely to own them (like some of the REITs I’ve described here, or bank preferreds paying close to 6%) plus a swatch of Canadian blue chips churning out dividends and pacing economic growth, and you probably have more stability than bricks can offer.

No, nothing’s guaranteed (my last post helped explain why). But a balanced portfolio didn’t ‘tank’ during the financial crisis (the worst since the 1930s), so why should it now? We’re not on the edge of economic Armageddon, despite what the metal-pumpers and doomers who wail here say. However we’ve reached the point of housing exhaustion – when 70% of families own homes, which has pushed them into the deepest debt canyon of all time. This asset is done.

So, the advice stands. Especially if you’re a house-heavy Boomer. Real men rent.

Selling high makes sense. This is high. Buying low makes equal sense. That’s coming. Renting for a couple of years won’t kill you, especially when your portfolio pays everything. For many people, this could be the windfall of a lifetime. There has to be a powerful reason not to do it.

Being a wuss, Marshall, ain’t one of them.

The net name (freedom_2008) has a special meaning for us: we quit the rat race from high tech industry and got our freedom to do whatever we like in 2008, and our age then was 48 and 52.

No, we didn’t start our professional careers early, at 28 and 34. Actually one of us came here from another country with only $100 US (and a young child) to start school (with highest grades to obtain and maintain a scholarship), that year was 1987 and she was 31. Fast forward 21 years, the child is in graduate school and mostly independent, we have done our share of hard working and high earnings, enjoyed life and saved a lot. We quit (not by layoff) and went to take care aging parent, and then moved to Victoria.

We own our house clear (about 25% in total wealth), have no other debt, and don’t need lots money to enjoy a good life, about $40K/yr now ($50K/yr while working), excluding income taxes. Without the high stress from work, not only we feel so free, we started to re-discover ourselves, who we really are and what we really enjoy. We are very very happy and feel that if there is a real heaven, we are already in it.

We started to read your blog not long after we quit and like it lots.

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